Weather Blog: Winter weather potential on Sunday increasing

Weather Blog

Could We See Our First Accumulating Snowfall Event of the Season?

Happy rainy Friday everyone! Rain will be on and off through the day. A rumble or two of thunder is also not out of the question. No severe weather is expected. Better chances of thunderstorms across the River Valley.

Day 1 Arkansas State Outlook for Severe Weather

First Accumulating Snowfall Event of the Season Possible on Sunday

By Sunday morning (possibly starting early morning) a big system will be moving in bringing the potential for accumulating snow. The forecast models have been on a trend of increasing the precipitation amounts, dropping temperatures to near freezing, which has led to higher snowfall accumulation.  If the temperatures drop to where we are thinking… we could get snow accumulation ranging in the 1 to 3” range with the possibility of going over that if it gets even colder.

Possible Snowfall Accumulation Solutions

Here are a few of the models projected snowfall accumulation:

GRAF 3 Day Snowfall Total (Keep in mind it doesn’t go out a full 3 days)
European 3 Day Snowfall Total
GFS 3 Day Snowfall Total
NAM 3 Day Snowfall Total

I think the NAM is overdoing it, but it also does a decent job with shallow colder air masses. Keep in mind the NAM totals are on the high side, but it shows the possibility of what could occur if all the conditions are met (namely colder temperatures) creating a decent snowfall.

NWA Weather Authority Snowfall Map

Here is our current thinking with snowfall totals:

More details will become available with newer data over the next couple of days, but this system Sunday could bring impacts… so plan accordingly.  As you can see…. Various models are ALL showing winter precipitation and decent snowfall accumulation.

Timing

Precipitation will start to fall in the early morning hours of Sunday with most of it transitioning to snow in the afternoon as the temperatures drop due to evaporational cooling.

Many of the models are too warm and have kept us in a rain/snow mix through the event. We think that the temperatures will drop more than the current models are thinking which is why we buy the possibility of accumulating snow. It makes sense with the set-up of the system.

Keep in mind that our snowfall map and timing are preliminary only and are subject to change with the latest forecasts.

Keep it here with your Weather Authority for the latest!

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