The main forecast concern continues to be the likelihood of heavy rainfall and flooding tonight and into tomorrow morning.
The biggest changes from the previous forecast include a northward shift in the main axis of heaviest rainfall amounts and the issuance of a flash flood watch for most of the forecast area.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma early this morning in response to a modest low-level jet.
This activity will translate eastward through the rest of the morning, with the focus likely to be from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas by sunrise.
More widespread area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will begin to move into the forecast area mid to late this afternoon in response to the approaching upper-level jet.
Overall coverage and intensity of the rainfall will increase this evening and overnight, especially near the cold front.
The position of the front and the location of the best upper-level support favors areas between I-44 and I-40 for the highest rainfall amounts this evening, with an increasing southeastward push into tomorrow morning.