Monday, January 20 Morning Forecast: Clear and cold weather expected

Weather Talk

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS (KNWA) — Here’s a look at your upcoming forecast from meteorologist Rick Katzfey.

At least a piece of the arctic ridge has nudged into the region, with another surge of colder air expected this evening as the Arctic high settles across ia/mo. Will continue to go a few degrees below the nbm for highs today, with readings struggling into the mid 30s across parts of northeast ok and northwest ar. Clear and cold weather is expected for tonight, with lows falling well into the teens/lower 20s.

We should see a small warmup by tuesday, as low-level warm air advection improves late in the day ahead of the next shortwave. In addition, expect cloud cover to increase west to east during the afternoon.

The improving warm air/moisture advection will be over-riding the shallow cold air by Tuesday night, with increasing precipitation chance by late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The nam typically handles these shallow cold airmasses better than the global models, although nam forecast soundings are showing a rather deep isothermal layer very near 32f, which further complicates the resultant precipitation types. Have opted to maintain the wintry mix (rain/snow/sleet) for a good portion of the area, as persistent warm-air advection may eventually result in a warm nose. Have kept accumulations generally less than a half inch for now, and we’ll continue to refine the details over the next 24-48 hours.

The bulk of the precipitation will become liquid by Wednesday afternoon, although still could see a light wintry mix linger in parts of the higher terrain of northwest AR into Wednesday night.

Long range models continue to show some differences in the developing northern stream upper low, with the ecmwf tracking the system a bit farther south than the gfs. If this occurs, there may be another period of light wrap-around wintry precipitation late Thursday night into early Friday for parts of northeast OK/Northwest AR.

Milder weather is expected for the weekend as heights rise the wake of the exiting upper low

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