Monday, January 6 Forecast: Sunshine and mild temps

Weather Talk

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS (KNWA) — The main items of interest this morning are winds/fire weather danger on Wednesday. Heavy rain/thunder/severe potential Thursday and Friday. And finally winter weather potential Friday night and Saturday.

Above average warmth and dry weather will persist thru the middle of the work week. Cooling behind yesterday’s fropa will knock temps back a few degrees from yesterday, but another warming trend begins Tuesday and peaks on Thursday, where highs could climb as much as 20 degrees above average for this time of year.

South winds increase over the region wednesday as lee side
Troughing/low pressure develop ahead of a shortwave trough. The
Winds combined with the warm and dry weather will yield elevated
To significant fire weather danger across eastern oklahoma and
Northwest arkansas. The nam is not overly aggressive with winds
During the day wednesday and even suggests that the strongest
Winds will be after dark wednesday night. If this were to pan out,
The strongest winds would not overlap the peak time for fire
Weather concerns.

An unsettled weather pattern is expected for the latter part of this week and into the first part of the weekend. Low level moisture will return Wednesday night into Thursday as strong south winds continue ahead of a broad western conus trough. Shower and storm chances increase, especially across eastern areas, Thursday as warm advection increases ahead of a low amplitude shortwave trough ejecting across the central plains. After a relative lull in the action Thursday night, more widespread rain and storms are expected Friday as gulf moisture will interact with a frontal boundary draped near the southern and eastern fringes of the forecast area in advance of a strong shortwave trough over the southwest conus. While it appears the true warm sector will not make it far enough north and west to push into the area, elevated instability will be high enough to yield some potential for severe storms. An axis of heavy rainfall is expected along and near the frontal zone which is likely to set up just to the south and east of the forecast area. Trends in the data do bear watching in the coming days for flooding potential in our area.

Stronger cold advection will occur Friday night into Saturday as the strong shortwave trough ejects into the southern plains. The Ecmwf and now the gfs indicate that a wrap-around band of precipitation will set up along a SW to NE deformation zone just to the north of the pv max track across northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Quickly cooling thermal profiles would support a transition to sleet and snow by this time. The latest
Ecmwf shows several tenths of an inch of qpf in the band with Thermal profiles cold enough for all snow during the day Saturday across our area, suggesting near warning criteria snow accums are possible. We are still several days out to focus too heavily on the details just yet, but chances are increasing that some impactful wintry weather is possible to start the weekend for some of us.

Quiet weather will return for the latter part of the weekend on
Into the first part of next week.

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