FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA/KFTA) — Here’s a look at your morning forecast from Friday, March 13:
Morning surface analysis plots a cold front from the Ohio valley southwest to the ArkLaTex and across north tx. The western portion of the front across north TX is likely close to stalling as pressures begin to fall to the west in advance of an upper-level low pressure in the southern stream over southern CA/northern Baja. The system is beginning to slowly move in this direction as we speak this morning. Increasing waa to the north of the stalled front will spread rain and eventually isolated storms today and tonight across the region. The rain will come to an end from northwest to southeast Saturday as the aforementioned system ejects northeast across the plains while opening up and weakening as it progresses into a confluent flow regime over the central part of the country. There is some disagreement between the nam and ecmwf on how far north the stalled front will retreat during the day Saturday. The ecmwf tracks a weak frontal wave across southeast ok, suggesting the potential for the warm sector to push into the far southern areas, while the nam keeps everything south of the red river. For now, will go with increased thunder potential Saturday afternoon. If the ec is correct, some potential for severe storms would exist if enough forcing is present to get storms to form.
The latter part of the weekend looks quiet in the wake of the first system with a reinforcing push of cooler air into the region as high pressure builds south over the Mississippi Valley. However this quiet will not last long. The persistent blocking pattern mentioned earlier to our west will allow yet another closed low to take its place in the southwest conus next week. Persistent southwest flow aloft downstream from this feature will induce waa on the cool side of the front and will bring more rounds of rain and isolated storms early next week. As the western closed low starts to head this way, a large swath of warm conveyor precip is expected to spread northeast over the plains and Mississippi valley toward midweek. Then what looks like the final round of precip, and our best chance for severe weather, will be as the main upper system ejects into the plains Thursday and Thursday night.