Monday, March 9 Morning Forecast: Windy with periods of rain

Weather Talk

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA/KFTA) — Here’s a look at your upcoming forecast from Meteorologist Rick Katzfey:

Widespread areas of light to occasionally moderate rain will continue through the morning hours in response approaching upper wave/strong nose of upper jet streak shifting into the ArkLaTex region. Initial round of heavier rain will likely begin to move east of the area by early afternoon with a few lingering showers.

Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon. Marginal heating, combined with continued low-level moisture advection, will allow a narrow axis of surface-based instability (500-1000 j/kg) to develop along frontal boundary by late afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon/early evening along front. Although low-level winds will begin to veer with time and become more unidirectional, strong deep layer shear could support a few organized rotating storms with marginally severe hail/wind. Main uncertainty at this time is exactly how much instability actually materializes.

Another fast moving upper wave will approach in northwest flow aloft Tuesday night with steepening lapse rates across NE OK. Scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible along/north of surface low track with the potential for a few hail producing storms across NE OK/NW AR late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Frontal boundary forecast to stall across far southeast Oklahoma Wednesday night into Thursday with lingering storm chances near boundary.

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