Thursday, January 16 Forecast: Cloudy, colder temperatures return

Weather Talk

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS (KNWA) — Here’s a look at your upcoming forecast from meteorologist Rick Katzfey.

Cold and dry airmass currently advecting into the fcst area providing a sharp contrast from the record high temps realized Wednesday afternoon from se OK through western ar. Goes-17 reveals a well defined wave just west of the baja region which is progged to eject quickly northeastward ahead of the stronger shortwave moving ashore the western conus. This lead wave will prompt warm advection induced precip to intensify across se ok later this morning with the precip gradually expanding northward by late afternoon. More widespread precip is expected tonight with the second stronger wave and associated cold front influencing the region Friday through Friday night with continued high precip chances.

The initially dry airmass will allow plenty of wet bulb cooling potential as precip expands across the region. Trends in the latest data allow for sfc temps at or just below freezing to hang across portion of northwestern osage county, along with a sizable portion of Carroll and Madison counties in NW AR. This scenario is appears valid given observed sfc dewpoints and the resultant forecast includes light icing potential for these areas beginning this evening for Osage cnty and later tonight through early friday
Morning across NW AR. The intensity of any passing precip will likely alter the sfc temps given the expected warm layer magnitude and this pattern raises uncertainty on how much icing will be realized. That being said, will delay any winter weather headlines too see how data trends through the day, but it should be noted that the higher terrain of far nw AR often overperforms with realized icing and will be an area to closely monitor.

Temperatures modify sufficiently during the day Friday to end any icing potential, however fcst will trend toward the colder solution for high temps. Dry weather returns for Saturday with seasonably cold temps. Reinforcing cold front arrives Sunday to maintain temps at or below normal through mid next week. Data continues trend of a weak wave spreading light precip into the area around mid next week. This may result in some chance of wintry precip depending on the degree of erosion of the early week
Cold dome.

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