Thursday, March 12 Morning Forecast: Warm with considerable cloudiness

Weather Talk

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA/KFTA) — Here’s a look at your morning forecast for Thursday, March 12 from Meteorologist Rick Katzfey:

The persistent active weather pattern expected to remain through the entire upcoming seven day period continues to provide multiple forecast challenges, including additional severe weather potential this afternoon and evening.

Things are fairly quiet presently, with earlier largely mid-level radar echoes having shifted eastward into north-central Arkansas. A small chance of some shower and thunderstorm development will continue through the morning across Northwest Arkansas in response to returning southerly low-level winds and warm advection into the region. The main focus for thunderstorm development today will be a cold front that will push southward through the afternoon and into the evening. Afternoon temperatures ahead of the front will likely be around 20 degrees above normal, aided by a shift to a more downslope component to the low-level winds. The very warm temperatures will lead to plenty of instability immediately ahead of the front, with cape values from 1000-2000 j/kg forecast by mid-afternoon. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Oklahoma and into Northwest Arkansas through about mid-evening, with damaging wind and large hail the main threats.

The front is still likely to become stationary just south of the Red River tonight, keeping any shower and thunderstorm focus through Friday morning across areas south of I-40. Much colder temperatures will prevail in the wake of the front. More widespread precipitation will expand northward once again during the day Friday as another disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft pushes through the area. A stronger disturbance will be fast on the heels of this one, leading to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms continuing Friday night and into Saturday.

If there is any largely dry day expected through the period, it is Sunday, as a – very – low amplitude ridge and surface high pressure briefly move into the region. This will change quickly late Sunday night and into Monday as another disturbance from the southwest makes a quick approach. Expect this general brief lull/quick increase in precipitation pattern to continue to repeat itself through much of next week. Just like at this same time yesterday morning, there remain some timing differences in the data with each impulse next week so expect some increased precision in forecasting the lulls over the next few days.

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