Tuesday, March 10 Morning Forecast: Mix of sun and clouds

Weather Talk

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA) — Here’s a look at your upcoming forecast from Meteorologist Rick Katzfey:

An active weather pattern will persist across eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas through the upcoming seven day period. The main forecast challenges will be multiple periods of thunderstorm activity and low end severe thunderstorm potential as well.

At present, surface high pressure extends across the region, with current temperatures fairly seasonable for this time of year. Low clouds persist across roughly the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area in a region of cyclonic curvature aloft and may be slow to erode in far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Winds should begin to shift back to a southerly direction this afternoon as the surface high pushes eastward, leading to above normal temperatures but values well below yesterday`s highs.

The quiet weather during the daytime today will likely extend into the evening, but thunderstorm chances will increase once again after midnight tonight. Another fast moving disturbance will move through northern portions of the area, pushing another front southward into Oklahoma and Arkansas. A strong low level jet will develop overnight, leading to a quick moisture return that will interact with the southward moving front. Thunderstorms will be possible within the broader region of warm advection initiated by the low level jet, with the greatest instability and hence, most intense activity coincident with the front itself in far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This potential will extend into the post-sunrise morning hours tomorrow as well.

The front will become quasi-stationary across southeast Oklahoma, with any thunderstorm focus shifting temporarily into far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas into tomorrow evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances will shift back northward into Thursday morning as the front returns northward as well. This northward return will be shortlived, however, as another disturbance quickly pushes the boundary southward again during the day Thursday.

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