The main forecast concern this morning is the potential for additional rounds of severe weather and possible flooding primarily to the northwest of Interstate 44 into the weekend.
Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma are largely on the downswing with decreasing instability across the area. The boundary of interest has not moved much in the last several hours and is positioned very near Interstate 44.
This boundary and where it moves, or rather, doesn`t move, will be crucial in how far south and east the severe weather and flooding potential extends into the forecast area. Current data show that the boundary will begin to move slowly northward into Kansas and Missouri later today, placing the axis of greatest concern north of the northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas border by this afternoon.
Portions of northeast Oklahoma to the northwest of Tulsa could be on the southern fringes of the main severe weather threat, with areas farther south likely to be capped. As we move closer to the weekend and into the early part of the weekend, the boundary should edge closer to the forecast area as the upper-level trough in the southwestern United States moves slightly eastward.
Still, expect that areas northwest of Interstate 44 would be most at risk for additional thunderstorm activity even as this occurs. Temperature wise, things should be above normal given the extension of the upper ridge into the area, and as such, trended temperatures up from the blended guidance.
There may be a lull in the activity late in the weekend and into early next week, with more widespread thunderstorm activity likely to develop by the middle of the work week as the western trough finally moves through the Plains.