High pressure extending from the Great Lakes into the southern plains will lead to another nice fall afternoon following a cool start to the morning.
South winds will begin to increase some later today and tonight as the SFC high slides east. Low level jet developing in response to upper trough moving into the northern Rockies tonight should begin to transport moisture north with some elevated convection possibly developing as far east as northeast Oklahoma late tonight into Wednesday morning.
This will also keep overnight lows considerably milder tonight.
The upper low is expected to continue moving east and eject into the plains by Wednesday night, with more robust moisture transport taking shape by then. Will likely see an increase in elevated convection as a result, with some data suggesting this could linger well into the afternoon Thursday.
By late Thursday afternoon, the upper system will force a strong cold front into the area with an increase in showers and thunderstorms along the front.
Ample instability and shear will be present for a threat of severe weather along the front, with an organized line of storms sweeping through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Thursday evening and overnight.
A considerable amount of post-frontal convection remains possible as well with widespread significant rainfall potential and some flooding concerns across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas given the recent excessive rainfall.
Some showers may linger into Friday morning, but the main feature will be breezy and much cooler conditions.