A strong shortwave trough is dropping southeast over the plains early this morning.
Weak instability over the region will keep convection more isolated and will preclude a severe risk. By afternoon, the area will be on the back side of the upper trough and in a steep lapse rate environment with the cool temps aloft. CAM data continues to support scattered afternoon convection moving southeast over the Ozarks and neighboring portions of eastern Oklahoma.
Limited risk of severe hail and wind will exist with the storms, which should die off with the loss of daytime heating this evening.
Below average temps will continue thru Thursday as we get a reinforcing push of cool air from this upper system. Lows will dip into the upper 40s over portions of Northwest Arkansas Thursday morning.
Storm chances Friday afternoon thru Saturday will be low and confined to areas near the Kansas/Missouri borders with warming mid-level temps overspreading the region. Temps will also be climbing, with highs around 90 across much of the region by Saturday.
The beginning of what will be a messy regime will get going Saturday night into Sunday as one or more storm complexes work their way into and across the area at the tail end of a weak synoptic front.
Storm chances will remain fairly high into early next week, with a gradual decrease toward the end of the week as warm mid level temps spread back over the area.