The latest early morning surface analysis indicates that cold front extends from northwest Missouri through central Kansas and then into southeast Colorado.
Isolated showers across south-central Kansas are expected to stay north and west and diminish later this morning. Storms should begin to fire along the front in south-central Kansas by mid-afternoon.
These should primarily train along an axis from eastern through central Kansas with development into north-central Oklahoma, with some heavier rain totals possible through this evening.
We will have one last day of summertime heat with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Storms may move into far northwest Osage County by late afternoon, but more likely will hold off until early evening with the front.
The best severe potential will likely be north and west across southern Kansas into north-central Oklahoma late this afternoon into early evening, with a potential for isolated damaging wind gusts.
The front will then accelerate across northeast Oklahoma overnight tonight into Thursday morning, with showers and storms overspreading mainly areas in far northeast Oklahoma.
The coldest air will progress southward more quickly across western and central Oklahoma than this far east, so used a blend of model data to depict a gradient from northwest to southeast.
It will likely be cloudy Thursday morning, which may prevent overnight lows from dropping too much despite the frontal passage. On Thursday, there will be a tight temperature gradient, augmented by wherever the rain band persists.
It could be quite chilly over northwest parts of our forecast area, with highs not climbing much from morning lows in the low to mid-60s.