Upper ridging will dominate this week, with an extended period of above-normal temperatures and dry weather expected for eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Temperatures will warm into the low to mid-90s this afternoon, with heat index values around 100 to near 105 degrees. This will be marginal for a heat advisory, although we’ll continue to monitor conditions for today.
Model guidance in reasonable agreement that a weak cool front will backdoor into parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas later Wednesday. This may have a minor impact on temperatures both Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as drier low-level air temporarily filters in.
Temperatures the remainder of the week will show a slow warming trend, with highs creeping up into the mid-90s (and possibly upper 90s) for parts of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
There are some indications that mid-level heights will decrease later in the weekend as an upper wave swings through the plains. This could bring a surface boundary closer to the region, although extended models disagree on how far south the boundary sags.
Some computer model high temperatures continue to show a cool bias and have trended closer to the warmer European model numbers in the extended.