An upper-level storm system will move out of the Rockies into the Central Plains by tonight.
At the surface, low pressure will move into central Kansas late this afternoon, with a trailing dryline south across Oklahoma to the west of Interstate 35. A capping inversion will keep storms at bay for much of the day, but model solutions indicate that the cap will weaken enough for at least isolated thunderstorm development ahead of the dryline late this afternoon or early this evening.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather threats, with wind profiles not as favorable for tornadoes as they have been with many of the recent events. Nevertheless, isolated tornadoes will be possible, especially this evening as the low-level jet increases.
Later this evening, upscale growth of convection may occur, but this is dependent on cap strength. Numerical guidance is all over the place with convective coverage and location overnight, and as such will hold off on any flood watches at this time.
The greater threat for widespread significant rainfall will be Wednesday afternoon and evening as an upper wave moves northeast out of west Texas and a cold front pushes southeast across our area.