Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase today and especially on Thursday as upper-low approaches from the southwest.
Best rain chances will be south of I-44 this afternoon as upper jet streak lifts out of Texas into Oklahoma with the highest chances for thunderstorms located near the Red River.
As main upper low moves into the area on Thursday, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase during the afternoon and evening. Trying to nail down rainfall amounts have been problematic given the scattered nature of storms expected, including run to run inconsistencies on specific locations.
With upper moisture values approaching two inches, locally heavy rainfall will be likely in the stronger storms. But, given the slow storm motions expected, some areas could receive significant rainfall of three to four inches, while other locations only pick up an inch or less.
Given the scattered nature of the convection shouldn’t see widespread river rises, however, if heavier rainfall axis develops over a specific basin,
River flooding will once again become a concern given the current lake levels.