The nice weather over the weekend is coming to an abrupt end as we start the work week.
A shallow cold front is sliding across eastern Oklahoma early this morning, marking the beginning of a stretch of colder, cloudy and wetter weather through midweek. Some patchy drizzle is possible later this morning across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas before chances of light rain/drizzle increase by late in the afternoon and into the evening in association with a fast-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject northeast across the central plains tonight.
Precip chances will decrease and shift south and east after midnight as the wave departs.
Warm advection/isentropic lift ramps up quickly by Tuesday afternoon and continues into Tuesday night above the shallow cold wedge in response to the approach of another stronger shortwave trough over the western CONUS.
The global models continue to suggest that portions of central into northeast Oklahoma, as well as far northwest Arkansas, could see pockets or swaths of locally heavy rainfall. Soils across the region are fairly saturated and a lot of this rainfall will probably be a runoff, suggesting that flooding will be a concern, both flash and river.
The heavier rain potential should shift east by Wednesday, with only light precip remaining.
The GFS and ECMWF for the second straight night have trended more progressive with the ejecting shortwave trough over the plains Wednesday night into Thursday.
This has also resulted in a shift to the south and east to the second round of heavier rainfall that was forecast Wednesday and Wednesday night.