Cold start this morning with wind chills in the single digits across portions of northeast Oklahoma.
Focus quickly shifts to the storm system on Tuesday with the potential for significant winter weather.
Upper low will dig into the four corners region tonight with strong forcing developing tuesday morning as coupled upper jet structure/strong divergence develops over eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas. In response, widespread precipitation will spread into the area during the day tuesday from south to north.
Temperatures at the surface are forecast to cool to near or just below freezing as precip falls into drier airmass/wet bulb. Still uncertainties regarding the exact evolution of thermal profiles during the day, which will have a significant impact on precip types and overall winter weather threat.
Best chance for freezing rain appears to be in the higher terrain areas of northwest arkansas, although temperatures may cool enough to transition to or stay sleet in some locations. Will continue with main snow in areas northwest of Tulsa with some accumulations likely.
Precip will likely switch over to freezing drizzle Tuesday evening as drier air aloft moves into the region. Have opted for now to not issue a winter storm watch for northwest arkansas given the low confidence on exact precip type, however, this will be the most likely location for significant icing and/or sleet accumulations. Would expect at least a winter weather advisory will be needed for a portion of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Slow warming trend for the middle to latter part of the work week ahead of next strong upper storm system that will impact area early next weekend. Models in general agreement in timing with showers/thunderstorms likely during this time period.
Depending on how far north warm sector lifts and instability available, could also see a severe weather threat Saturday given the strong dynamics expected.