This morning we have seen showers and thunderstorms across northern portions of the forecast area as a couple of thunderstorm complexes just clip the area.
Currently, have low pops for this morning along the Kansas/Oklahoma and Missouri/Arkansas borders to account for any lingering activity.
Expecting another warm and muggy day across the area with some isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon as the airmass becomes increasingly unstable and the cap weakens.
Left over boundaries from the early morning complexes may provide the focus for this activity.
The best chance of thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will be late tonight and into Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the dryline across the Texas panhandle and near a stationary boundary across southwest Kansas late this afternoon as a mid-level shortwave moves across the southwest United States.
This activity will then congeal into an MCS and spread into eastern Oklahoma late this evening and then spread across the entire Tulsa CWA as we move through the overnight hours and eventually into Wednesday morning.
Some of these storms could be severe especially across eastern Oklahoma where conditions will be most favorable. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern.
The aforementioned thunderstorm complex may steal some of the thunder from the activity that is expected on Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the airmass across the area may not have enough time to recover before a cold front moves through Wednesday night.
While thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the front as it moves through the region, coverage will not be as great as it would have been without the morning MCS.
It is still possible that some of these storms could be severe. The showers and thunderstorms will come to an end Thursday morning as the cold front exits the area.