A fast moving upper disturbance continues to induce scattered light showers across far northeast ok and northwest ar early this morning.
Much of this will be to the east of the area by noon, but will also continue to see patchy light drizzle north of a shallow frontal zone that is in the vicinity of I-44. This boundary may sag a bit farther south before stalling out today and will set up a large gradient in high temps across the forecast area with locations along the Kansas/Oklahoma border struggling to reach 50, while mid-70s along the red river despite extensive cloud cover.
Robust low-level moisture returns ahead of the system will cause a rapid increase in elevated showers and thunderstorms tonight mainly after midnight, with sufficient instability present for a large hail threat.
The true warm sector will also make a run north and potentially could reach as for north as I-40 corridor by late tonight and early Saturday morning. Deep layer wind fields support potential for rotating updrafts within this possible area of surface based storm development suggesting all modes of severe possible.
Storms will then sweep quickly east Saturday morning with much drier airmass spreading in from the west. Deep mixing will promote gusty winds through the afternoon before the pacific cold front arrives late in the day.
Elevated fire spread conditions may develop as a result by Saturday afternoon.
Considerably cooler conditions behind the front Saturday night and Sunday, with another significant upper level system expected to spread moisture back north into the area by Monday. This system should eventually move over the southern plains by Tuesday night or Wednesday, with a period of heavy rainfall possible.
At this time it appears the warm sector will be suppressed to the south, but once again given the forecast of strong deep layer wind fields at least some severe weather threat is possible.
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