Ongoing severe weather overnight has occupied much of our time, but fortunately, it appears there is little change to the previous thinking in regard to the forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms currently expanding across west Texas will spread rapidly northeast across Oklahoma today as a cold front sags slowly south across the area.
The stage will be set for a widespread 1-3 inch rainfall event from east-central and southeast Oklahoma across Northwest Arkansas, with lesser rainfall amounts across northeast Oklahoma.
Severe weather will also be a concern, especially from southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. The flash flood watch will be left as is at this time.
Dry weather will then prevail Thursday into the early part of the weekend, but west-northwest upper-level flow will bring the potential for MCS activity to move into the area from Saturday night on. The timing of best MCS potential varies between the GFS and ECMWF, but sided closer to the ECMWF for now.
Confidence, however, is low and chance pops will suffice for now into the early to the middle part of next week.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.