Temperatures will fall all day, with gusty winds developing immediately behind the front.
Morning highs will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s across northeast Oklahoma to the mid to upper 50s across portions of west-central Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. Wind advisory is in effect for much of eastern Oklahoma for wind gusts to 40-45 MPH through the afternoon.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are breaking out mainly ahead of the front across northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. Isolated lightning is possible through mid morning, given modest elevated instability.
The cold air is definitely coming, but it`s been a bit slower overnight. It looks like surface freezing line may not arrive in Tulsa until around midday. which means most precipitation south of a line from Tulsa to Bentonville will be all rain this morning.
The main timeframe for wintry precipitation will be this afternoon, with dry conditions developing by this evening. The best chance for some accumulating snow will be across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, with less than a half inch possible on grassy surfaces.
Some light icing is possible across northeast Oklahoma this morning, mainly north and west of Tulsa, and some light icing is possible this afternoon across northwest Arkansas depending on how fast surface temperatures drop.
Near record low temperatures are possible for some locations on Tuesday morning with bitterly cold wind chill values.