Weather Blog: Storm chances throughout the day

Weather Talk

Main forecast concerns remain the potential for severe storms and heavy rainfall late today with the arrival of a strong cold front, along with the potential for the first freeze in some areas by Saturday morning.

Early this morning, robust warm advection pattern has set up in advance of a strong trough moving into the northern/central plains. This has maintained scattered elevated storms into eastern Oklahoma, which have remained sub-severe as instability remains somewhat limited.

The brunt of the convection has shifted to the east of US 75, though additional development remains possible through the morning.

Meanwhile, a strong cold front continues to move quickly southeast from central Kansas into the Texas panhandle as of 4 am, a bit ahead of schedule. Instability will increase ahead of the front by this afternoon, with the latest high-res data continuing to suggest thunderstorm development this afternoon will be confined to along the advancing front.

Some potential remains for at least a brief period of discrete cell development with deep layer shear supportive of all modes of severe weather, including a low-end tornado threat. With shear vectors basically parallel to the front, convection should quickly grow to a more linear mode with damaging wind and hail becoming more of a threat.

Heavy rainfall potential will also exist with at least a brief period of forcing continuing behind the front allowing for continued post-frontal showers and thunderstorm development.

However, the overall duration will likely limit the threat of excessive amounts, with totals more in the 1-3″ range.

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