Weather Blog: Strong thunderstorms possible today

Weather Talk

The main forecast concerns focus in the next 24 hours or so with convective potential today and tonight, as well as heavy rain potential.

A weakening MCS, which evolved from western Kansas supercell storms last night, is making its way into northeast Oklahoma this morning. The system has overachieved all night as CAM solutions all want to dissipate it.

With the current weakening trend, it is unclear how much of this system will be left afternoon this morning and have left chance pops in advance of the system. Other storms may fire along the narrow deep layer moist axis that extends the ArkLaTex this morning and move east.

By late afternoon, a cold front will make its way south into the region and may begin to focus on storm activity. The boundary will stall tonight over the region, with a warm advection regime forcing more scattered showers and storms.

The latest HRRR suggests that these storms could train over the same areas that were hit hard last night. Have been on the fence about a flash flood watch but will elect to let the dayshift take another look at the data.

Pops are not forecasted to be quite as high as they were last night and this adds to uncertainty in the flash flood potential.

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