One more unseasonably hot day this afternoon (I promise) before major changes arrive in the weather pattern.
Highs will be back in the 90-95f degree range again this afternoon, although gusty south winds will take the edge off the heat just a bit.
Pacific moisture from TD 19-e along with additional western gulf moisture will result in anomalously high PWATS by Friday, with values around 2 to 2.2 inches.
Convection developing to our west late today will make a run toward the region late tonight, although the best chances of significant rainfall look to hold off until Friday afternoon and into Saturday as a cold front sags into the region.
The abundant moisture along with good right entrance region jet dynamics will favor heavy rainfall, although there remain some questions as to where the main axis of heavy rainfall will set up.
We`re sticking with persistence for now, with the heaviest rains generally along and south of i-40, with around 3-5″ possible through early Saturday.
Have decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now, but day shift will need to
Strongly consider one.
Areas of rainfall should begin to shift southeast later Saturday into Saturday night, although it should be noted that the ECMWF hangs on to more rain across southeast Oklahoma into early next week.
Clouds/rain will hold temps down through the weekend, with highs likely remaining in the 70s.
A higher amplitude long-wave TROF will usher in a stronger cold front late Tuesday/Tuesday night along with shower/storm chances.
Extended models also hint at another cold front for late next week.
This will knock temperatures back down closer to seasonal norms.
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