Weather Blog: Thunderstorm chances tonight, warm up on the way

Weather Talk


Main forecast concerns are the potential for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, and additional flash flooding late this afternoon and into tonight.

Low-level moisture will increase areawide today as southerly winds increase in response to an upper-level trough swinging into the southwestern United States and increasingly amplified flow aloft.

Very high instability is expected to develop by mid to late afternoon, with the highest values likely to be found along and north of Interstate 44. Largely isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening across portions of northeast Oklahoma and perhaps far
Northwest Arkansas.

Increased ridging into the areas south of Interstate 44 should keep convection suppressed in that area, and there is a nonzero chance that it could keep thunderstorms from developing this far south completely. However, the latest data are trending toward at least some development.

Any thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will have a high likelihood of being super cellular and severe, given the very high instability and sufficient deep layer shear.

The overall thunderstorm potential will largely shift northward into Kansas and Missouri early tomorrow morning.

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