Early this morning, an upper-level low-pressure system was beginning to round the base of the upper-level trof axis over the desert southwest.
The freezing line at the surface was located across east central Oklahoma into west central Arkansas.
The result will be rain showers lifting northward into southeast Oklahoma this morning and spreading over the CWA this afternoon. Extensive cloud cover should limit the amount of warming today with temps ahead of the precip warming into the mid/upper 30s and then wet-bulbing down close to the freezing mark as evap cooling eats away at the drier air at the surface.
Thus as the precip lifts northward, periods of freezing rain, sleet and snow are forecast to develop across northeast oklahoma and much of northwest arkansas this afternoon and evening.
The freezing line this afternoon looks to reside close to Highway 75 in northeast oklahoma and also within the terrain locations of far northwest arkansas. West of Highway 75 will have the greater potential for accumulating snows of up toward 2 inches, while parts of Carroll and Madison counties in far northwest Arkansas will have the greater potential for accumulating ice around a tenth of an inch.
Between these two locations is expected to be a mess of different precip types through this evening as surface temps could bounce near/just above freezing with the precip. Snow/sleet accumulations of a few tenths of an inch and ice accumulations from a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch will be possible for these locations.
A winter weather advisory is in effect for all of these locations and the current coverage continues to look good at this time.
Overnight tonight, mid-level drier air is forecast to spread into the region as 850-mb winds shift more out of the southwest with the upper-level wave moving across the plains.
This drier air is expected to cut off moisture to the dendritic growth zone which will allow for areas of light drizzle and freezing drizzle to remain possible across the region, besides ice accums for Carroll
and Madison counties.
This precip overnight looks to be the main potential for accumulating ice within the advisory area. Thus, we will keep the advisory going till noon Wednesday.
Temperatures during the night look to slowly decrease into the upper 20s in Osage County to mid 30s in southeast Oklahoma possible Wednesday morning.