The upper-level pattern isn’t going to change much over the next several days, which means that showers and storms will stay in the forecast, at least across northeast portions of Oklahoma.
This morning, storms extended from far southeast Nebraska into the Texas panhandle. Convective outflow will effectively reinforce the front that extends across the central plains.
It’s troubling to see heavy rain will be favored across portions of south central Kansas given the widespread serious river flooding which is ongoing in northeast Oklahoma. However, largely unidirectional profiles in the mid-levels will result in back-building thunderstorms in a zone from near Kansas City to Wichita through tonight.
Although most areas will stay dry today, there does appear to be a chance for some storms across north central through northeast Oklahoma tonight. Strong southwest flow aloft will persist with and with lots of moisture, this will set the stage for a few severe storms this evening. Flash flooding will also be a concern, particularly along and west of US-75.
Low storm chances remain in the forecast through the weekend, with upper ridge building Sunday into Monday. This should help suppress storm development over eastern Oklahoma.
The next big severe weather day looks to be Tuesday when the upper trough moves east of the area