FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA) - Main forecast considerations are thunderstorm chances tonight into Tuesday morning and then again Tuesday night into Wednesday.
A heat advisory was considered and may need to be issued later.
Heat index values were near the 105F value yesterday and it will be similar again today.
Early morning surface analysis shows strong front extending across central SD into western NE with a dry-line across far eastern CO/NM.
A strong low-level jet (40-50kt) is feeding into the northern Plains system with strong to severe storms still
A cold front will move into western Iowa and eastern Kansas by this afternoon, as strong upper trough pushes east into the upper Midwest.
Storms will form first across Iowa and northeast Kansas, along with the northern portion of the front by this afternoon.
The upper ridge will build over the southern Plains this afternoon, which will only increase the mid-level temps and the capping inversion.
Isolated showers and storms could form this afternoon in the favored terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma/western Arkansas, but most of the area will remain dry until late tonight.
Latest global models and some of the high res members show storms into northwest Oklahoma by mid-evening.
There shouldn't be the too much eastward progress of these initial storms, though, and we will maintain just a low chance for storms in far northeast Oklahoma before midnight.
Once the convective system develops a cold pool, it will likely propagate south into northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas after midnight.
It’s unclear how far south the complex will survive, but there is a potential for training cells/slow movement given seasonally high PW values.
The severe threat will be mainly north of I-44, with a primary threat of damaging winds.
The front will move north into Kansas by Tuesday, so most of the precipitation may remain there through late evening.
There will again be the potential for an overnight MCS Tuesday night into Wednesday, with perhaps a better signal for Wednesday morning rains across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
For the extended, it still looks like hot temperatures to end the week with mid to upper 90s likely.
For a full look at the weather forecast, click here.
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