Overcast conditions will keep temperatures on the cold side today although winds will remain light as a surface ridge builds over the area.
We should have a brief break in the clouds on Tuesday, allowing highs back into the 50s.
A fast moving upper short wave will move into the region Wednesday night into early Thursday. Although moisture is limited, given the strong forcing, should see scattered showers with the best precipitation chances over far northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas.
Forecast concern quickly shifts to the weekend with a strong storm system impacting the region Friday into Saturday.
Models in somewhat better agreement concerning the timing of upper features, although GFS still remains the most progressive compared to the slightly slower/more closed upper low progged in the ECMWF.
Widespread rain will likely spread into the area Friday night along and ahead of a strong cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma. Precipitation still expected to transition to snow on
Saturday as an arctic air mass moves in behind the front.
Main question at this point is overall QPF amounts, including the potential for heavier snow totals across portions of northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas.
Generally stayed with a blend between the drier GFS/wetter ECMWF for now with 1 to 2 inch snow totals over the aforementioned area. Forecast snow amounts would likely need to be increased if ECMWF solution appears to be the more likely scenario.
Regardless, some of the coldest air of the season is expected behind the front with single digit winds chills Saturday into Sunday.