Convective clusters located over extreme western Oklahoma early this morning continue to move east-southeast with time.
Atmospheric analysis did show less of a cap compared to 24 hours prior, so chances may be a little better of these storms holding together through the morning, but cam solutions continue to struggle and consensus remains for gradual weakening before reaching eastern Oklahoma will
maintain some low pops through 18z for parts of eastern Oklahoma, with redevelopment possible this afternoon within unstable and weakly capped airmass.
Much like yesterday, the weak flow aloft supports clusters of pulse-type strong or severe storms with a limited damaging wind and hail threat into the early evening.
The overall trend for Tuesday remains for lower storm coverage overall, but weak southwest flow aloft should develop in advance of upper low which will slowly move across the southern Rockies. Deeper tropical moisture will surge north as a result of increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday. The main concern continues to be a threat of at least locally excessive rainfall with forecast pwat values around 2 inches and weak winds aloft leading to slow storm motion. confidence in any given location receiving excessive amounts remains low however, with a forecast of general 1-3″ rainfall maintained for Wed-Fri. the system should slowly move east of the area with rain chances
decreasing into the weekend.