A potent upper trough, currently moving east of the four corners region early this morning will shift into the central plains today.
In response, a surface low will rapidly deepen over the Oklahoma panhandle lifting into northeast Kansas by late afternoon. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture will continue to lift north into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with a few scattered showers possible this morning in the region of stronger.
It appears the best chance for surface-based/severe convection will develop near or just east of CWA by mid to late afternoon in stronger low-level convergence zone.
As the surface low lifts northeast into Kansas, very strong southwest winds will develop ahead of approaching the dryline with frequent gust in the 40 to 50 mph range by late afternoon/early evening across northeast Oklahoma.
Some of the latest CAM solutions push the dry line into Osage/Pawnee counties by late afternoon with RH values falling below 25 percent and therefore a red flag warning will be issued for those areas. The strong winds will likely persist through the evening hours immediately behind a cold front.
After a cool/dry day on Wednesday, active weather pattern quickly returns Wednesday night into Thursday as stronger southwest flow aloft develops ahead of upper low digging south along the California coast.