Wednesday, February 12 Morning Forecast: Rainy day expected

Weather Talk

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA) — Here’s a look at your upcoming forecast from Meteorologist Rick Katzfey:

Strong warm advection pattern ahead of approaching wave moving into texas panhandle region this morning producing widespread rain mainly south of I-40 overnight. The rain will continue to expand north across the remainder of the forecast area this morning as stronger forcing spreads east. Existing layers of dry air may cool the column just enough in areas to the northwest of Tulsa due to wet-bulb effects for some light sleet or snow to develop this morning as has been consistently depicted by high-res guidance. However with sfc temps remaining at or above freezing, accumulations likely to be limited to elevated surfaces. Warm advection will eventually offset this for the most part by afternoon with transition to all rain even near the ok/ks border. Heaviest rainfall amounts will remain southeast of I-44 where some totals around an inch appear likely.

A second upper level feature embedded in northern stream moving across the central Rockies this morning will eventually phase with oher system to form an open wave that will move east of the area this evening. Highest precip chances this afternoon and evening become focused more into northeast OK and northwest AR, with enough cooling to result in transition to rain/snow mix across northern sections during the evening as the precip shifts to the east. Again some light accumulation is possible, but again sfc temperatures will remain marginal for impactful accumulation. Much colder air surging through the northern plains this morning will plunge south into the area tonight, most likely arriving after precip ends. This will however result in much colder temperatures by Thursday morning with gusty north winds and wind chill readings around zero in parts of northeast OK. Much below normal temps continue Thursday and Thursday night, and generally trended forecast colder than nbm during this period.

Cold blast will be short lived as the cold air quickly moves off to the east by Friday, with a much warmer regime setting up by the weekend. Some moisture return could lead to increasing rain chances in eastern areas by Monday ahead of an approaching cold front, but forecast will continue to be trended warmer and drier for Sat-Mon. Front will bring temperatues back below normal for Tuesday.

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