Wednesday, February 19 Morning Forecast: More clouds than sun, cool temps

Weather Talk

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA) — Here’s a look at your upcoming forecast on Wednesday, February 18 from Meteorologist Rick Katzfey.

Dry and mild conditions today with increased precipitation chances tonight as shortwave troughing approaches the southern plains. Widespread precip is expected to develop across central TX by evening spreading nne with a high chance of rain across SE OK into west central AR. The initially dry low levels may allow a brief window of sufficient wet bulb cooling to allow higher terrain of SE OK to see a rain/snow mix, however no accumulations expected with a transition to all rain. Further northwest a corridor of mid level forcing will enhance of band of light snow across western KS spreading to NE OK after midnight. The eastwar extent of this precip continues to shown as lacking and the duration of the forcing quickly diminishes toward sunrise Thursday. Couple this trend with marginal sfc temps and measurable snow is likely to be confined to near the OK / KS border with a low chance of the highest terrain of far NW AR also seeing a light dusting. The reinforcing cold front will cool high temps for Thursday and especially for Thursday night as sfc ridging looks to remain across the fcst area allowing for ideal radiational cooling.

Return flow begins to develop on Friday with a warming trend into Saturday. 00z data continues trend of earlier 12z data in delaying precip chances and fcst will lower chances for Saturday, with Sunday continuing to appear as a widespread rain event as the compact upper low crosses the southern plains. Rains end Monday with the fcst becoming much more uncertain for early next week. large spread in extended data concerning the developing pattern and such low confidence warrants keeping near climatology and a dry fcst.

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