Wednesday, March 18 Morning Forecast: Cloudy and warm, chance of precipitation

Weather Talk

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA/KFTA) — Here’s a look at your morning forecast for Wednesday, March 18 from Meteorologist Rick Katzfey.

A band of showers and storms associated with an 850mb short wave will move out by mid morning today. In the wake of these showers, clouds may begin to break up a little across NE OK this afternoon allowing us to see that brilliant yellow ball in the sky for the first time in several days! If clouds can clear quickly, then temps will respond nicely by rising quickly into the 70s or even lower 80s. If clouds stick around a little longer then lower to mid 70s will be more likely Opted to split the difference and more or less stay with the nbm solution.

Tonight will see a more substantial piece of energy move into the region. As a result, severe storms appear likely across texas and western and central Oklahoma. As for e ok and NW AR things continue to be a little iffy given the expected timing of these storms (generally after midnight) moving through. With that said, conditions should be favorable for a severe storm or two to move through the cwa given strong veering shear and pockets of surface cape near 1000j/kg. The main threats appear to be damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and an isolated threat for a tornado embedded within the anticipated (qlcs) line of storms. Heavy
Rainfall will be thanks to pwat values in the 1.25 to 1.75″ range. This suggests that rainfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour at times are very possible which may lead to isolated flash flooding of low lying areas. Some redevelopment across E OK and NW AR Thursday by early afternoon along the dryline may result in a few strong to severe storms to develop. The aforementioned threats will apply with the addition of a marginal large hail threat. Additional rainfall amounts, when this is all said and done Thursday evening, will generally range from 1 to 2 inches with isolated 3″ amounts possible within heavier thunderstorms that move over the same area. This forecast will continue to be refined through the day and afternoon hours today.

Friday will see a cold front pass through the area with surfaces pressures beginning to increase as a result of a strong high pressure moving into the north-central conus. The influence of this strong (approximately 1040mb) high pressure will be felt here with clearing skies Friday into Saturday and cold light to moderate ene winds ushering in well below normal temperatures for
This time of year. Temperatures Saturday morning are expected to be in the 20s from about I-40 and northward with lower to mid 30s expected south of there. Given the greening and budding vegetation across the area, freeze and frost headlines will likely be warranted for saturday morning.

After a cool weekend, temperatures look to rebound (70s by Tuesday and Wednesday) through the work week next week as the aforementioned high pressure quickly moves off to the east.
Additional rounds of showers and will be possible through the week (maybe an isolated storm or 2 as well) as we return to a more favorable pattern for precipitation. With that said, there aren’t any strong signals for heavy precipitation next week which is a good sign for our rivers and soils which will see a good amount of rain over the next few days.

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